Lula's fourth term reshapes BRICS dynamics

The election of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to a fourth term as President of Brazil has provided a political boost to the BRICS alliance, which includes China, Russia, India, and South Africa. This outcome averts a potential leadership transition that analysts feared could destabilize the group.

Lula secured his victory on Sunday, ending a campaign that pitted him against Flavio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro had suggested reconsidering Brazil's role in the bloc and aligning more closely with Washington. Lula, a founder of the alliance nearly two decades ago, has consistently worked to expand its global influence.

Esmat Zaidan, a professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, stated that Lula's win is vital for the bloc's political continuation. He noted that the alliance seeks to increase its role in global governance. Imran Khalid, a geostrategic analyst at Foreign Policy in Focus, explained that BRICS operates by consensus. He warned that a reluctant founding member could slow decision-making from within, a risk that Lula's return has now mitigated.

The election outcome affects the bloc's efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Brazil is one of the largest trading economies in the group. Khalid pointed to a 2023 agreement between Brazil and China to settle more trade in reais and yuan. He also cited the New Development Bank's goal to issue 30 percent of its loans in member currencies. These steps aim to lower dollar dependence without open confrontation.

However, experts caution that the alliance remains diverse. Guy Burton, a geopolitical analyst, noted that BRICS members have distinct economic interests and geopolitical goals. He highlighted that the group now includes Iran and the United Arab Emirates, nations on opposite sides of current conflicts. This diversity means the bloc has never acted as a unified political unit.

Zaidan argued that Lula's victory strengthens the case for strategic autonomy rather than direct confrontation with Washington. He explained that many emerging economies seek greater room to make independent decisions without excessive dependence on a single power. Khalid added that China and Russia supported Lula, with the Kremlin praising his work for the alliance.

The shift in Brazil's leadership occurs as the United States under President Donald Trump reasserts its power and views BRICS as a threat to its interests. Burton observed that states in the West, including Europe, are also pursuing independent security and economic interests. He stated that the world is moving toward a genuinely multipolar system where nations work with partners who serve their specific needs.