Charleston readers look at October surprise theory

Local voters in Charleston are watching the national race for any last-minute shocks that could change the outcome. Political scientists say these sudden events, known as October surprises, rarely shift the final tally. The term describes an unforeseen incident that upends the debate just before Election Day. Most historians trace the phrase to the 1980 campaign. President Jimmy Carter hoped to secure the release of American hostages held in Iran before November 4. He did not achieve that goal before the vote. Republican rival Ronald Reagan won that election.

Since 1980, several incidents have grabbed headlines in the final weeks of campaigns. In 1992, indictments related to Iran-Contra made news. In 2008, the global financial collapse dominated coverage. Matt Dallek, a professor of political management at George Washington University, said those events likely did not change who won. He noted that there is no evidence these surprises flip a dynamic already in place. Typically, the news cycle pushes the trend line further toward the candidate who was already leading.

Dallek pointed to one major exception in recent history. In 2016, then-FBI Director James Comey wrote a letter to Congress. He informed lawmakers that the FBI had received new information regarding Hillary Clinton's email investigation. This happened less than two weeks before the election. Days before voters headed to the polls, Comey sent a second letter. That note stated the new information did not change previous conclusions. Dallek said the letters became a big news story. He believed the coverage cemented the idea for some voters that Clinton was hiding something. The moment reminded people of her earlier email scandal.

This year, attention has turned to a specific ad in the Ohio governor's race. The spot is the closest current example of an October surprise. Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy created the ad. It features the estranged mother of his rival, Amy Acton, a Democrat. The spot uses Acton's mother to attack her. Ramaswamy tracked down the woman for the commercial. The full impact of that ad will not be known until the votes are counted. For now, residents in the Kanawha Valley continue to follow the national news cycle as the election approaches.