Lula Wins Fourth Term on 51.79 Percent of the Vote

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil after obtaining 51.79 percent of the vote in the October 26 runoff. His opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, received 48.21 percent. The margin between the two candidates was approximately 4.3 million votes out of a total electorate of 159 million.

The final tally reversed the results of the first round held earlier this month. In that initial contest, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes against Lula’s 53.8 million, a spread of 47.03 percent to 45.16 percent. No first-round runner-up in Brazilian democratic history since 1985 had previously won the subsequent second ballot. Polls indicated the race tightened in the weeks between voting days, with Bolsonaro maintaining a lead of only small fractions of a percentage point before the final count.

Lula, the incumbent from the Workers' Party, attributed his victory to a shift in voter engagement. He stated that the outcome represented a defeat for denialism. Several factors contributed to the change in momentum. The first round recorded a record abstention rate of 21 percent, a trend more common among lower-income voters who typically support Lula. Progressives subsequently focused heavily on mobilization efforts to turn out that demographic.

Digital strategy played a central role in the campaign's final phase. Millions of voters joined a WhatsApp channel named Lula's army, which distributed daily instructions for creating viral content. Lula, who acquired his first smartphone recently, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed that of the Bolsonaro campaign for the first time. The opposing camp faced internal challenges, including a claim by the magazine Piauí that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists.

External economic pressures also influenced the race. President Donald Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports and described the trial of Jair Bolsonaro as a witch hunt. Lula positioned his administration as a counterweight to what he called colonial designs by the United States. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy that balanced relations with the US, China, and Russia. He also declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition for military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election result has implications for environmental markets. Deforestation in the Amazon has decreased by more than 70 percent under Lula’s leadership. His government has also cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous rights. Tom Phillips, a correspondent for The Guardian, noted that environmental issues were a secondary topic in the final debate, with voters prioritizing the economy and public security. Lula will now govern with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede the election, citing the two-hour extension of voting hours as a reason. He described it as impossible to accept the result. Phillips said he does not expect the challenge to succeed, noting that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s victory. He suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.