Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Dilemma Could Shape Israel's Next Coalition

With less than a day remaining before voting begins, political figures in Israel are weighing a scenario in which a three-seat faction could hold the balance of power. Assessments within the establishment indicate that Agudat Yisrael, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, might support a government headed by a member of the current opposition. Such a move would rely on budgetary agreements to secure the faction's backing, though analysts note it would not necessarily eliminate the need for support from Arab parties.

The potential for cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. In August, Maariv reported that the faction was exploring fresh political options, including possible cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions occurred against a backdrop of friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah centered on the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to the report, Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando further complicated ties to Likud by expressing reservations about the commitment to the current bloc.

Goldknopf faces a substantial obstacle in his own voter base. His supporters are largely identified with the Right. Political assessments suggest that any visible sign of him backing a change bloc government could push some of his constituents toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes the potential deal a high-risk maneuver for the faction leader.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc wins a majority large enough to govern, Bennett might determine the shape of the next government. One possibility raised in political circles is that Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government if neither side reaches the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority. This is considered a remote scenario, but some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc capable of such a step given his background on the Right. The move would require him to shift his base of support, a task complicated by the makeup of his current party.

A similar move by Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned. Liberman previously joined a Netanyahu-led government as defense minister. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from making such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. The question of which politician might be willing to move their political base is expected to become a central issue in coalition negotiations.

For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than agreements reached between parties. The final outcome will depend on the vote counts and subsequent negotiations over the next government's composition.